Metode ARIMA untuk Memodelkan Volume Produksi Kelapa Sawit pada PT. SOCFINDO di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30606/absis.v3i2.669Keywords:
ARIMA, Forecasting, Stasioneritas, Peramalan, Volume ProduksiAbstract
This study aims to create a mathematical model that can be used to predict the amount of oil palm that will be produced at PT. Socfindo in Aceh Tamiang Regency in the coming period. The data used is data on the amount of oil palm that is ready to be produced every month in 2012-2015. The method used is the ARIMA method. The selection of this method is based on the data used, namely time series data. Before carrying out further testing, first, ensure that the data used meets the stationary state. From the test results, it is found that the data used fulfills the stationary state, then it is found that the MA (1) model can be used to predict the time series data. Furthermore, we obtain a model that can be used to predict the volume of oil palm production at PT. Socfindo is: Z_t = a_t-0.4096a_ (t-1) +521.57 With a_t ~ N (0; 29192.72)
Downloads
References
Abidin Z. 2008.Analisis Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, Vol. 6, No. 1, April 2008
Alatas, A. (2015). Trend Produksi dan Ekspor Minyak Sawit (CPO) Indonesia. Vol. 1. No. 2. hal. 114-124.
Carter, et. al. (2007). Palm Oil Markets and Future Supply. Europan Journal of Lipid Science and Technology. Vol. 109.No.4.
Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., & McGee, V.E. (2002). Metode aplikasi dan peramalan. Jakarta. Binarupa Aksara Publisher.
Maygirtasari, Yulianto dan Mawardi. (2015). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis. Vol. 25.No. 2.hal. 1-8.
Nurmalita, V, Wibowo, P.A. (2018). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia ke India. EEAJ 8 (2) (2018) 605-619
Pimpi, La. (2013). Penerapan metode ARIMA dalam meramalkan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) Indonesia Tahun 2013. Jurnal paradigma, Vol. 17; Hal. 35.
Radifan, Fakhrus. (2014). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Crude Palm Oil Indonesia Dalam Perdagangan Internasional. Economics Development Analysis Journal. Vol. 3.No. 2.hal. 259–267
Ruslan, R.,Agus Salim Harahap., & Pasukat Sembiring. (2013). Peramalan nilai ekspor di propinsi Sumatera Utara dengan metode ARIMA Box Jenkins. Jurnal saintia matematika, Vol. 1; Hal 579.